Peak Season Should’ve Been Over. Here’s Why it Isn’t

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This article summarizes a recent FreightFA Brief episode that explains why inland handoffs, not ocean volumes, are emerging as the primary cost center during peak season.

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Peak season was expected to arrive early and end quickly. However, elevated import volumes continued into September as global vessel reliability declined, leading to costly failures after ships reach port.

For carriers, brokers, forwarders, railroads, drayage providers, and shippers, the key question is no longer if imports have peaked, but whether inland networks can process freight without turning routine handoffs into costly exceptions.

Peak Season Risk No Longer Stops at the Port

The latest Global Port Tracker outlook from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates projected 2.31 million TEU through major U.S. container ports in September—up 9.6% year over year and enough to make it the busiest month of 2026 in the report’s forecast.

Timing is critical. Importers advanced shipments earlier this year to manage tariff risk, leading many to anticipate a softer fall peak. However, strong demand, vessel delays, and cargo rerouting extended the peak season.

“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in the organization’s September release. Gold pointed to weather-driven vessel delays in China, rerouting away from the Panama Canal, and resilient consumer demand.

The 2.31 million TEU figure for September is a forecast, not a final total. Inbound volumes were strong entering the month; Descartes reported 2,603,709 TEU in August, up 3.8% from July and the third-highest monthly total on record.

The Handoff Is Where Costs Start to Compound

A vessel’s arrival does not immediately make inventory available.

Containers must be discharged, cleared, released by the terminal, matched with a driver and chassis, moved before free time expires, and delivered according to warehouse schedules. If rail is involved, you must manage additional cutoffs, ramp constraints, and destination appointments.

That sequence is where peak season becomes expensive. The Federal Maritime Commission’s guidance distinguishes demurrage—charges that accrue when cargo remains at a marine terminal beyond free time—from detention, which applies to extended use of intermodal equipment.

These charges are only part of the risk. Redelivery, storage, overtime, premium drayage, expedited truckload, missed promotions, and production disruptions can quickly outweigh initial transportation savings.

A low linehaul rate does not guarantee a low-cost shipment.

Procurement teams that consider only the booked rate, without accounting for exception costs, are evaluating only part of the transaction.

Operators should consider the following immediate actions:

• Drayage providers: Protect appointment capacity and chassis access around high-priority containers instead of treating every box equally.
• Truckload fleets and brokers: Monitor outbound imbalances near gateways and inland ramps, as local capacity tightening can occur before national indices reflect broader changes.
• Rail and intermodal providers: Expect the inland pulse to outlast the import headline as boxes move from terminals into domestic networks.
• Forwarders and NVOCCs: Emphasize reliability and exception management alongside rates. Customers need realistic availability windows, not just vessel ETAs.
• Warehouse operators: Align receiving labor and yard capacity with arrival date ranges instead of relying on a single appointment.

A Cheaper Booking Can Become an Expensive Shipment

Volume is only one factor. Reliability determines whether the rest of the network can operate effectively.

Xeneta’s August schedule-reliability scorecard found that global container schedule reliability fell to 29%, down from 33% in July. The average delay for late vessels rose from 4.2 days to 5.1 days.

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This page carries the opening of the article. The full article is for subscribers of The FreightFA Brief: https://freightflowadvisor.substack.com/p/peak-season-shouldve-been-over-heres